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The newest Bill Moyers Journal episode includes an interview with Victor Navasky and Christopher Cerf, whose new book MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! OR HOW WE WON THE WAR IN IRAQ looks back at what the experts told us would happen in Iraq. It’s quite funny except it’s all true.
DONALD RUMSFELD:It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.
BILL MOYERS:No one had pushed the war more than vigorously than Vice President Cheney. He said…”I think it’ll go relatively quickly…weeks rather than months.”
BILL MOYERS:And, said the experts, it won’t take many troops or require much sacrifice…Rumsfeld’s deputy Paul Wolfowitz…
PAUL WOLFOWITZ:…we can say with reasonable confidence that the notion of hundreds of thousands of American troops is way off the mark…
BILL MOYERS:And the cost to the taxpayer, the experts assured us — practically nothing.
PAUL WOLFOWITZ:…we are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon.
BILL MOYERS:Ted Koppel put the question to America’s top aid official on Nightline:
TED KOPPEL:…you’re not suggesting that the rebuilding of Iraq is gonna be done for $1.7 billion?
ANDREW NATSIOS: Well, in terms of the American taxpayers’ contribution, I do; this is it for the U.S. the rest of the rebuilding of Iraq will be done by other countries who have already made pledges…
and
BILL MOYERS:And now, mission accomplished, experts savored the triumph. The editor of The Weekly Standard William Kristol, “The first two battles of this new era are now over. The battles of Afghanistan and Iraq have been won decisively and honorably.”
BILL MOYERS:The neo-conservative warrior Richard Perle told doubters to get over it. The war, he said “…ended quickly with few civilian casualties and with little damage to Iraq’s cities, towns or infrastructure…it ended… without the quagmire [the war’s critics] predicted…relax and enjoy it.”
BILL MOYERS:Said columnist Mona Charen of the Commander in Chief, “the man who slept through many classes at Yale and partied the nights away stands revealed as a profound and great leader who will reshape the world for the better. The United States is lucky once again.”
BILL MOYERS:And columnist Charles Krauthammer said, “The only people who think this wasn’t a victory are Upper West Side liberals and a few people here in Washington.”
BILL MOYERS:The Iraqis, said the experts, were sure to rally ’round…
WILLIAM KRISTOL:”I think there’s been a certain amount of frankly, Terry, pop sociology in America…that…the Shia can’t get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There’s almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq’s always been very secular.”
Navasky says:
VICTOR NAVASKY:Well, at every stage, there was someone who proclaimed that it was over. And– when this book came out, we were told isn’t it a shame that it’s coming out now, because the country has reached a turning point with the surge. And based on our research at the Institute of Expertology-
BILL MOYERS:Somewhere between the Brookings Institute and the Heritage Foundation.
VICTOR NAVASKY:Well, yeah. And the American Enterprise Institute. I mean, we consider them rivals, however, in our study. But we were sympathetic to the point of view that we’ve reached a turning point. Because, as we show in the book, in 2003, we were told by the President of the United States that we’ve reached a turning point. And then, in 2004, we were told we had reached a turning point.
And then, in 2005, we were told by Donald Rumsfeld we have reached a turning point. And then– So every year, three or four times, we seem to have reached a turning point. So that’s one of the ways that we have triumphed.
BILL MOYERS:So how do you decide who is an expert? What makes an expert?
CHRISTOPHER CERF:Well, I think if you are in the government — this is one of the problems we have in the country — you are, by definition, an expert. In fact, you’re unpatriotic if you disagree with someone in the government. And your expertise, if you had any before, becomes suspect.
BILL MOYERS:But these experts also included scholars, pundits, columnists.
VICTOR NAVASKY:People are believed to be experts who proclaim their expertise. Some of them do it directly. Others do it by using jargon, by parading the number of articles they’ve published, by their titles, and by their uniforms. And then, people who have positions of status and power, whether in the press, who are supposed to be adversaries of the establishment. Or, you know, the heads of departments — great departments of government — are assumed to know what they’re talking about.So anyone who is presumed to know what he is talking about, we, at the Institute of Expertology are ready to say, as an expert, but you have to trust us — they don’t.
But who are their favourite “experts”?
VICTOR NAVASKY:I have a favorite expert and a friend. And Chris, I’m sure, has his. But my favorite quote — he’s my favorite expert. But it’s a quote by Paul Wolfowitz, who, you know, came from the academic community, and then had this very important career in the Defense Department, et cetera.
And he says, at one point, “I think foreigners should stop interfering in the internal affairs of Iraq.”
At the National Day of Prayer this week, George Bush prayed for an international day of prayer…
…and we could see the prayers coming right out of his head!!! So burn in hell for all eternity, thou unbeliever!
But the whole world is already praying, every day; praying that George will stop it. Praying that George will leave early.
I think one of the interesting things about a National Day of Prayer is it does help describe our nation’s character to others. We are a prayerful nation.
We are a prayerful nation who, in the quiet contemplation of prayerfulness, communion with our saviour and love of humankind, bombs the shit out of them and tears their country apart.
A lot of citizens draw comfort from prayer. Prayer is an important part of the lives of millions of Americans. And it’s interesting, when you think about our faith you can find it in the Pledge of Allegiance…
Our faith? We’re all Methodists here, ain’t we? Christians, anyways. Real religions, you know?
…you can find an expression of American faith in the Declaration of Independence, and you can find it in the coins in our pockets. I used to carry coins — (laughter) — in about 10 months I’ll be carrying them again. (Laughter and applause.)
Oh, man, don’t we know. The whole world is counting down the days till you carry coins in your pockets again.
Over the last seven years, our country has faced many trials. And time and time again we have turned to prayer and found strength and resilience. We prayed with those who’ve lost everything in natural disasters…
Yup, we prayed for them there Katrina people. We didn’t do anything useful but we prayed.
…We prayed for our brave and brilliant troops who died on the field of battle.
All 4,000+ of them
We lift up their families in prayer.
Prayer’s a fair trade for a life I terminated on the altar of my ego.
And as we pray for God’s continued blessings on our country, I think it makes sense to hope that one day there may be a International Day of Prayer, that one day the national — (applause.) It will be a chance for people of faith around the world to stop at the same time to pause to praise an Almighty.
An almighty crock of shit.
Press Secretaries We’d Love to Fuck
Dana Perino
Beneath the glowing and blushered skin and under her sexy-cute “do”, it’s so hard to believe that she could be as slimy a PR flak as the Masters of Slime in whose tradition she so ably follows: Ari Flescher, Scott McLellan and Tony Snow. But she is a prevaricator par excellence. She is every bit the Mistress of Slime with lip gloss. How can you think about the lies she’s telling when all you can do is fantasise about her wet-look lips and what you’d like them to ….ahem… ?
But we did catch this on the 5th anniversary of Mission Accomplished:
“We have certainly paid a price for not being more specific on that banner. President Bush is well aware that the banner should have said, ‘Mission Accomplished For These Sailors Who Are On This Ship On Their Mission’.
That’s right, George Bush got all dressed up in combat drag and took a plane flight to a carrier in the middle of the ocean and had a huge banner made which would just coincidentally sit smack bang in the middle of the tv picture, and had the entire world’s media (it seemed) present for his declaration that ‘Major combat operations in Iraq have ended’ just for these few people on this one ship. At a cost of how many millions of dollars? Of course. He does it all the time.
According to OpEdNews Dana Perino then revealed that “the White House will be holding a contest for families and friends of the over 4,000 soldiers who have perished, and the more than 50,000 who have been maimed since the original Mission Accomplished banner was unfurled, asking them to come up with a more specific banner…We’re looking for it to be fun,” added Perino.
Although we are proud of our reputation for being disreputable, confusing, harmful, misleading and offensive it is quite clear that all the best blogs have serious posts by Nicholas Gruen or Peter Martin, Fred Argy, or John Quiggin about Teh Economy. We wish we could join them but we’re at a disadvantage. We don’t know much about Œconomics at all (but we know what we feel).
For most people “the economy” really boils down to how much they can spend on dinner tonight, whether they’re going to have a house tomorrow, what car they can consider buying, what job they can hope for (if any) and whether they noticed things like petrol and bread are more expensive than they seemed to be last month.
Most of us think that there is a THING called “The Economy” which does stuff (mostly scary) and has a mind of its own and has an appetite which must be satisfied. It must be fed and stroked and tamed, or, say some, left alone to grow in its own ugly, vicious, untameable way like a Tasmanian Devil. But there is no such thing. Economists just collect and manipulate statistics about what people and institutions did and how much what they did changed from last time and they reify those statistics into this thing they call “The Economy”, as if it’s real. That’s not to suggest that you can’t learn anything from the statistics, just that as long as you give this collection of stats entity you pretend it has a life it doesn’t have and you say meaningless things like, “‘The economy’ is healthy”. Sure, it’s a convenient shorthand but it gives the wrong impression to simple minds like Sir Roger’s.
Anyway, Teh Economy is all about money. Money - the story goes - is a form of stuff. It is finite and in limited supply and we have to fight for our share of it. We think (most of us) that since it is a money-pie of limited size we should share it more or less equally. We shouldn’t take too much more than our fair share except, you know, if we are prepared to do more for it, or if we’re more clever or luckier than others, or if some people don’t seem to want their piece as much as we do. We all know the Calvinist philosophy which we used to call “The Protestant Work Ethic” and now call “The Way Things Just Are”: A Fair Day’s Work for a Fair Day’s Pay. We have to be careful with our money, preserve it, use it wisely; because there is only so much of it and it represents to us good folk, of both Calvinist and Augustinian religious heritage, both the fruit of our labours and our good stewardship.
Most of us, in short, think that money is a real thing and almost all of us think it is created by the government based on real resources. Like gold in vaults.
And it’s not.
We think that the money banks lend us is money that other people have deposited.
It’s not.
This was the bombshell that rocked us yesterday. What we learnt makes too much sense to dismiss it, and it also revolutionises opportunity and possibility: it forces us to think differently about what money really is. There is no real limit to the money supply, or how much can be created, and how much of it we can have. If you have more it doesn’t mean someone else has to have less. There is no pie to slice. It’s a magic pudding! A Cut-an’-Come-Again.
If we had read anything as dry (we once thought) as an economic opinion, we would have known that.
Money is not stuff.
Here’s what money is: Money is debt, it is a promise to pay. When you sign the mortgage papers, the bank creates that money - to all intents and purposes out of thin air.
Banknotes are not ‘money’. They are promises to pay; in other words, IOUs; in other words, debt.
Most of us believe that banks lend out money that has been entrusted to them by depositors. Easy to picture. But not the truth. In fact, banks create the money they loan, not from the bank’s own earnings, not from money deposited, but directly from the borrower’s promise to repay.
Don’t believe us. How about these famous people?
John Kenneth Galbraith: “The process by which banks create money is so simple the mind is repelled.”
Sir Josiah Stamp, Director, Bank of England 1928-1941: “The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin.”
Graham F. Towers, Director, Bank of Canada: “Each and every time a bank makes a loan (or purchases securities), new bank credit is created – new deposits – brand new money.”
Reginald McKenna, past Chairman of the Board, Midlands Bank of England: “I am afraid that the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that banks can and do create money … And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people”
Irving Fisher, economist and author: “Thus, our national circulating medium is now at the mercy of loan transactions of banks, which lend, not money, but promises to supply money they do not possess.”
Robert Hemphill, Credit Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: “Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash, or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve.”
So what about the sub-prime mortgage crisis? Money is created by debt. The debts are not supported with stuff, at least not enough stuff to go around. So if everybody called in their debts the system would collapse. For the system to work the banks must borrow from each other. The debt must be passed around. But the banks are scared and have stopped borrowing from each other. That’s why the central banks, especially in the US and Britain, are pouring massive amounts of cash into the system - it’s to encourage the banks to start borrowing from each other again.
There is a series of five videos on U-Choob which explains it really well for those of us who didn’t really care for economics at school. Here’s Part 1:
The “Economy” is a magic cut an’ come again pudding. That makes lots of things possible, new ways of thinking about where any individual stands in the scheme of things, what sort of dreams and intentions they can have and what sort of actions they can take. It’s like a really scary but exciting new freedom.
Disclaimer: The maker of the videos has an agenda although we’re not sure exactly what it is. Nevertheless, the argument in the first few videos is quite straightforward. And we like the idea that money can be created out of thin air.
We will not be surprised to learn that real economists will think we’re naïve and that they disagree with much if not all of what we have written here. We welcome their feedback.
Whatever It Is I’m Against It [WIIIAI] has done it again:
You know what pisses me off about Bush, maybe more than anything else? Seven years of incompetence and failed policies haven’t wiped that smug smirk off his face. The man will go to his grave without ever grasping how godawful a job he’s done, with his monumental self-regard undented.
…thus, with an effortless flourish, nailing exactly how we feel.
The picture accompanying WIIIAI’s piece shows George conducting (for fuck’s sake) the Marine Band at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner last weekend - while managing to wink lewdly at an official guest. He can’t just turn a country in chaos overnight; he can embarrass himself in front of professional musicians in the wink of an eye. Apparently the last time he conducted, the 1812 Overture had to be renamed the 1912 Overture and he made such a shambles of it, he had the French winning after all. The violins pre-emptively attacked the violas, the double basses mounted a frontal assault on the horns and the trombones tore apart the kettledrums looking for WMDs. Notwithstanding, the White House Press Corps reported the fracas as a stirring example of the President’s remarkable skill in creating peace and harmony.
Like Father, Like Sonny
Still, he’s a chip off the old block - a credit to his dad, Herbert, as this 1992 cartoon from Tom Tomorrow shows:
Sadly (or not) George’s “monumental self-regard” will not translate into the sort of elder-statesmanship that, despite everything, even Bill Clinton achieved; that, despite his sometimes ineptitude, even Jimmy Carter has achieved; that his father has almost, but never quite, managed to achieve. Because it seems everything he has ever touched has turned to shit. His oil business, his baseball team. The economy, Iraq, Guantanamo, Palestine, the GWOT. Everything. George W. will never even be invited to adjudicate a dispute over a backyard fence because they know the fenceline will end being a bomb crater. But perhaps there will be something - like brush-clearing at the Crawford ranch - to keep him safely occupied and that George is good at, or if he isn’t…it doesn’t matter.